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S&P 500 vs World

S&P 500 vs Developed ex-US, Emerging, and China — relative return, rebased to 0% at the window start. Opens on the past 3 months; range buttons switch to 1M / YTD / 1Y / All.

S&P 500+2.3%

−3.7 pts behind

−4.3 pts behind

−3.8 pts behind

Range+2.32%

Market indicators

Valuation, rates, inflation, commodities · hover ? for detail. Bands are rules of thumb, not advice.

Shiller P/E (CAPE)

S&P 500 real price ÷ 10-year average inflation-adjusted earnings (CAPE). Smooths earnings cycles so one recession year doesn't make the market look 'cheap'. Long-run avg 21.4 (median, since 1871); historic extreme 7–44. Now 40.9.multpl.com · Shiller series (live, since 1871)

2026-09-18

40.9

Extreme historic high

avg 21 · range 7–44

S&P 500 P/E (LTM)

S&P 500 price ÷ last 12 months of reported earnings — purely historical, no estimates. Pair with forward P/E to see priced-in earnings growth. Ranked vs the long-run MEDIAN (robust to earnings-collapse spikes).multpl.com · S&P reported-earnings series (live, since 1871)

2026-09-18

26.1

Above avg +1.0σ

avg 19 · since 1871

S&P 500 forward P/E

S&P 500 price ÷ next-12-month consensus EPS — embeds expected earnings growth. Forward estimates only exist since ~1985, so this is the longest clean window. Curated snapshot (no free live feed). Ranked vs ~40-yr (since ~1985) history (mean 15.5, 1σ ≈ 3.0), now +2.3σ.Curated snapshot · ~40-yr bands (Yardeni)

2026-06

22.5

Expensive +2.3σ

avg 16 · ~40-yr (since ~1985)

Developed ex-US P/E

Trailing vs forward P/E for MSCI EAFE, each ranked against its own history (z-score). Trailing looks expensive because current earnings are depressed; forward is tamer because analysts expect an earnings rebound — the gap is the priced-in recovery. Trailing σ-bands sourced (WorldPEratio); forward σ-bands estimated. Cap-weighted index — a directional reference, not a specific fund.MSCI EAFE · WorldPEratio / JPM

2026-06

LTM

18.9

Expensive +3.8σ

FWD

15.1

Fair +0.7σ

Emerging mkts P/E

Trailing vs forward P/E for MSCI EM, each ranked against its own history (z-score). Trailing looks expensive because current earnings are depressed; forward is tamer because analysts expect an earnings rebound — the gap is the priced-in recovery. Trailing σ-bands sourced (WorldPEratio); forward σ-bands estimated. Cap-weighted index — a directional reference, not a specific fund.MSCI EM · WorldPEratio / JPM

2026-06

LTM

18.3

Expensive +4.3σ

FWD

13.4

Overvalued +1.6σ

China P/E

Trailing vs forward P/E for FTSE China · FLCH, each ranked against its own history (z-score). Trailing looks expensive because current earnings are depressed; forward is tamer because analysts expect an earnings rebound — the gap is the priced-in recovery. Trailing σ-bands sourced (WorldPEratio); forward σ-bands estimated. Cap-weighted index — a directional reference, not a specific fund.FTSE China · FLCH · WorldPEratio / JPM

2026-06

LTM

13.8

Fair +0.5σ

FWD

11.2

Fair +0.2σ

Treasury Rates

Three points on the US Treasury curve. 4-week (1-month) bill = the risk-free cash rate, set by Fed policy. 10-year = the discount-rate baseline for every equity model. 30-year = the long bond, the market's read on long-run growth and inflation. When the short end sits ABOVE the long end the curve is inverted — a classic late-cycle / recession signal.FRED (DGS1MO, DGS30) · multpl.com

2026-09-18

4-week

—

10-year

5.01%

30-year

—

Fear & Greed Index

CNN's 0-100 sentiment gauge from 7 signals (momentum, breadth, put/call, VIX, credit + safe-haven demand, 52-week highs). Greed flags froth; extreme fear has historically marked contrarian buying points.CNN Business (Fear & Greed Index)

2026-09-18

29 / 100

Fear

Dollar index (DXY)

DXY — trade-weighted basket of USD vs EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF. Higher = stronger dollar = headwind for foreign earnings of US multinationals.Yahoo Finance (ICE futures)

2026-09-18

100.22

Gold & Crude

Front-month gold, dollars per troy ounce. Rises when real yields fall or when investors want a hedge against the dollar and policy risk. Front-month WTI crude, dollars per barrel. The main input cost for the economy; feeds headline inflation with a lag of about a month.FMP (COMEX gold, NYMEX WTI front-month futures)

2026-09-20

Gold / oz

$4,425

+0.6% today · 52wk $3,718 to $5,627

WTI / bbl

$96.08

-5.7% today · 52wk $54.98 to $119

CPI & PPI

Consumer prices, year over year. The Fed targets about 2% on a related measure; readings above 3% keep rate cuts off the table. Producer prices, year over year. What businesses pay before costs reach shoppers, so it tends to lead consumer inflation by a few months.BLS (CPI-U all items, PPI final demand)

2026-08-01

CPI y/y

3.4%

Above target

+0.3% m/m · Aug 2026 print

PPI y/y

5.4%

Hot

+0.3% m/m · Aug 2026 print

Berkshire cash

Cash & U.S. T-bills ($366B) as a share of Berkshire's marketable investments — vs $324B equities + $17B bonds. Excludes wholly-owned operating businesses. Buffett's dry-powder gauge.SEC EDGAR 10-Q balance sheet

2026-06-30

51.8%

Historic extreme

Most popular

How this is ranked

Each public-portfolio holder contributes their % of portfolio in this stock. We sum across holders, then divide by √(market cap in $B + 0.1) so microcap conviction isn't drowned by mega-caps that everyone holds a little of. Min 0.5% per-holder allocation to filter dust; private portfolios excluded.

#	Ticker	Holders	Mkt cap	P/E LTM (FWD)	P/S	EV/FCF	Conviction
1	DDIDoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. American Depository Shares	5	$631.8M	5.1 (5.0)	1.7	1.5	1.440
2	GGRGogoro Inc. Ordinary Shares	2	$56.6M	— (—)	0.2	122	1.102
3	BMBLBumble Inc. Class A Common Stock	3	$368.2M	— (3.0)	0.4	2.6	0.852
4	LNSRLENSAR, Inc. Common Stock	3	$86.9M	— (108)	2.7	—	0.838
5	GRSDGrandstand Limited Ordinary Shares	3	$57.0M	— (14.3)	0.3	—	0.682
6	NNDMNano Dimension Ltd. American Depositary Shares	2	$331.0M	— (—)	2.7	—	0.159
7	SPRBSpruce Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock	1	$152.5M	— (16.6)	—	—	0.085
8	BCRXBioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc	1	$2.22B	— (15.0)	2.4	7.2	0.028
9	SRPTSarepta Therapeutics,, Inc. Common Stock	1	$2.12B	— (6.1)	1.1	—	0.028
10	GSLGlobal Ship Lease, Inc.	1	$1.65B	4.4 (4.6)	2.1	6.7	0.026
11	ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.	2	$5.76B	11.6 (10.5)	1.1	11.7	0.026
12	CROXCrocs, Inc.	2	$5.86B	10.6 (8.8)	1.5	10.9	0.023
13	WUThe Western Union Company	2	$1.93B	5.0 (4.8)	0.5	8.1	0.022
14	SIRISirius XM Holdings, Inc	2	$9.21B	10.8 (9.2)	1.1	12.0	0.022
15	LTCLTC Properties, Inc.	1	$2.29B	15.3 (19.9)	6.4	—	0.013
16	SIGSignet Jewelers Limited	1	$3.85B	11.6 (8.6)	0.6	7.1	0.010
17	LULUlululemon athletica inc.	2	$10.86B	8.1 (10.2)	1.0	8.7	0.008
18	STMSTMicroelectronics N.V.	1	$44.76B	98.4 (36.8)	3.6	220	0.006
19	SNPSSynopsys Inc	1	$73.77B	67.3 (25.4)	7.9	29.1	0.005
20	LITELumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock	1	$83.50B	— (43.2)	23.0	125	0.005
21	ADBEAdobe Inc.	1	$98.95B	13.9 (10.2)	3.8	9.2	0.004
22	BEBloom Energy Corporation	1	$78.24B	351 (98.4)	27.6	137	0.004
23	SFMSprouts Farmers Market, Inc.	1	$6.60B	13.6 (12.7)	0.7	24.1	0.004
24	PDDPDD Holdings Inc. American Depositary Shares	2	$112.31B	8.2 (7.4)	0.3	—	0.004
25	KSPIJoint Stock Company Kaspi.kz American Depository Shares	1	$18.53B	7.9 (7.1)	0.0	0.2	0.004
26	CIGCompanhia Energetica De Minas Gerais-CEMIG	1	$6.12B	6.8 (8.8)	0.1	40.7	0.003
27	HPQHP Inc.	1	$31.02B	13.1 (10.6)	0.5	9.8	0.003
28	PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock	1	$44.83B	9.9 (9.7)	1.4	8.1	0.003
29	OMCOmnicom Group Inc.	1	$21.01B	41.4 (7.3)	0.7	9.9	0.002
30	CHTRCharter Comm Inc Del CL A New	1	$14.67B	3.3 (3.1)	0.3	25.6	0.002