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S&P 500 vs World
S&P 500 vs Developed ex-US, Emerging, and China — relative return, rebased to 0% at the window start. Opens on the past 3 months; range buttons switch to 1M / YTD / 1Y / All.
Market indicators
Valuation + sentiment · updated daily · hover ? for detail. Bands are rules of thumb, not advice.
Shiller P/E (CAPE)
S&P 500 real price ÷ 10-year average inflation-adjusted earnings (CAPE). Smooths earnings cycles so one recession year doesn't make the market look 'cheap'. Long-run avg 21.3 (median, since 1871); historic extreme 7–44. Now 42.2.multpl.com · Shiller series (live, since 1871)42.2
Extreme historic highavg 21 · range 7–44
S&P 500 P/E (LTM)
S&P 500 price ÷ last 12 months of reported earnings — purely historical, no estimates. Pair with forward P/E to see priced-in earnings growth. Ranked vs the long-run MEDIAN (robust to earnings-collapse spikes).multpl.com · S&P reported-earnings series (live, since 1871)29.7
Above avg +1.5σavg 19 · since 1871
S&P 500 forward P/E
S&P 500 price ÷ next-12-month consensus EPS — embeds expected earnings growth. Forward estimates only exist since ~1985, so this is the longest clean window. Curated snapshot (no free live feed). Ranked vs ~40-yr (since ~1985) history (mean 15.5, 1σ ≈ 3.0), now +2.3σ.Curated snapshot · ~40-yr bands (Yardeni)22.5
Expensive +2.3σavg 16 · ~40-yr (since ~1985)
Developed ex-US P/E
Trailing vs forward P/E for MSCI EAFE, each ranked against its own history (z-score). Trailing looks expensive because current earnings are depressed; forward is tamer because analysts expect an earnings rebound — the gap is the priced-in recovery. Trailing σ-bands sourced (WorldPEratio); forward σ-bands estimated. Cap-weighted index — a directional reference, not a specific fund.MSCI EAFE · WorldPEratio / JPMLTM
18.9
Expensive +3.8σFWD
15.1
Fair +0.7σEmerging mkts P/E
Trailing vs forward P/E for MSCI EM, each ranked against its own history (z-score). Trailing looks expensive because current earnings are depressed; forward is tamer because analysts expect an earnings rebound — the gap is the priced-in recovery. Trailing σ-bands sourced (WorldPEratio); forward σ-bands estimated. Cap-weighted index — a directional reference, not a specific fund.MSCI EM · WorldPEratio / JPMLTM
18.3
Expensive +4.3σFWD
13.4
Overvalued +1.6σChina P/E
Trailing vs forward P/E for FTSE China · FLCH, each ranked against its own history (z-score). Trailing looks expensive because current earnings are depressed; forward is tamer because analysts expect an earnings rebound — the gap is the priced-in recovery. Trailing σ-bands sourced (WorldPEratio); forward σ-bands estimated. Cap-weighted index — a directional reference, not a specific fund.FTSE China · FLCH · WorldPEratio / JPMLTM
13.8
Fair +0.5σFWD
11.2
Fair +0.2σTreasury Rates
Two ends of the US Treasury curve. 4-week (1-month) bill = the risk-free cash rate, set by Fed policy. 10-year = the discount-rate baseline for every equity model. When the short end sits ABOVE the long end the curve is inverted — a classic late-cycle / recession signal.FRED (DGS1MO) · multpl.com4-week
—
10-year
4.63%
Fear & Greed Index
CNN's 0-100 sentiment gauge from 7 signals (momentum, breadth, put/call, VIX, credit + safe-haven demand, 52-week highs). Greed flags froth; extreme fear has historically marked contrarian buying points.CNN Business (Fear & Greed Index)60 / 100
GreedDollar index (DXY)
DXY — trade-weighted basket of USD vs EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF. Higher = stronger dollar = headwind for foreign earnings of US multinationals.Yahoo Finance (ICE futures)99.65
Berkshire cash
Cash & U.S. T-bills ($398B) as a share of Berkshire's marketable investments — vs $288B equities + $18B bonds. Excludes wholly-owned operating businesses. Buffett's dry-powder gauge.SEC EDGAR 10-Q balance sheet56.6%
Historic extremeMost popular
How this is ranked
Each public-portfolio holder contributes their % of portfolio in this stock. We sum across holders, then divide by √(market cap in $B + 0.1) so microcap conviction isn't drowned by mega-caps that everyone holds a little of. Min 0.5% per-holder allocation to filter dust; private portfolios excluded.