Throughout Jan 2024-Nov 2024, Aluminum prices delivered in the US traded in a stable range b/n $400-$450/ton
Then.....
Former President Trump’s re-election in Nov 2024 sparked a rally as traders began to price in the risk of tariff rhetoric becoming a reality. B/n election day & inauguration day, prices rose by +13%.
While in office, President Trump imposed +25% tariffs on global imports, including those from Canada (the largest supplier into the US). Aluminum prices have since risen by a further +60%.
Midwest Premium for aluminum in the US is currently ~$990/tonne
Sweeping tariffs imposed are reshaping global trade flows & inflating costs for American consumers. But they are falling short of their primary goal: to revive domestic aluminum production.
Instead, rising costs, particularly skyrocketing electricity prices in the US relative to global competitors, are leading to smelter closures rather than restarts.
This cost will ultimately be borne by downstream users
$IYM $JJU $AA $RS $ALUM
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