We'd been looking for a good $RIGL peer for a hypothetical M&A exit valuation in light of the CPRX acquisition. As we understand it, Tavalisse loses patent protection 7/27/2032 that manifests in lower analyst consensus thereafter. @DCZ
The best peer or comp transaction we could find is $ICPT that, our records indicate, was acquired by Alfasigma for an EV of $800MM (Sept 2023).
The graph compares RIGL 10-year analyst consensus (FY26 - 35) to ICPT's mgmt/BOD prepared 10-year revenue forecast (FY24 - 33). Revenue multiples are provided at the bottom. It's important to note ICPT sales were essentially at 100% margins where RIGL FY25 actual gross margin was 82% (i.e. Gavreto royalties).
This is not investment advice. We have no idea what RIGL might be worth in a hypothetical M&A exit. We're merely sharing an analysis.
$XBI $IBB
$VCX thank god for volatility. Buy the dips, pray it doesn’t keep dropping too much from there, sell the pops. Reminds me of $ICPT volatility back in the day.
@Scarlivertriumphant if you are the original scarliver than many people might not have been here long enough to remember your back and forth with $ICPT ST board about their black label and safety concerns.
I of course don’t think you caused their downfall but when you start saying stuff like this it’s a bad signal, not just noise 🤨
That is also how we inherited our friend Pete. I blame you for that but won’t hold it against you since I have learned so much doing DD on your posts.🤷🏼♂️
@thePistolPete @scarliver I don’t care about your return on your investment account, what does that do for me?
Post all your positions and your loss on $ICPT and the amount of shares you own.
@thePistolPete @scarliver I remember back when you were pumping $ICPT and he kept telling you that you were going to get the black label.
It was so funny to watch that back and forth between the boards. You were all like…. I swear all the profiles are scarliver, lol. At one piont I thought you might have a mild case of schizophrenia.
When he was proved correct is when you became the foil hat wearing troll of the $GALT board.
This is a true story and it’s much easier to do the DD and fact checking on that vs the retarded Apple stuff you post.
A lot of people are frustrated by you. Personally I am amused by it. I used to feel sorry for you but now you are kind of like the sad clown 🤡 of ST.
@Scarlivertriumphant it’s bonkers. He is not even short here, but $GALT lives rent free in lil Peters head.
He blocked me because I used to pass the time on this board making fun of him.
The guy blames an anonymous poster on ST named scarliver who was in this guys little peanut brain fully responsible for $ICPT fail.
$ICU I don't think there is any immediate concern about the clinical benefit.
I think the ultimate concern is cash runway.
Of course, in a perfect world, we would see the DSMB recommend that the trial be halted on account of a significant beneficial clinical effect being observed without further need for additional data.
I think the only time I remember seeing something like that was maybe in 2014 with $ICPT.
That's not to say that it doesn't happen, but I just don't remember any other examples off hand, and I may have gotten the date wrong, and I also may be incorrectly remembering the whole thing because it was so long ago.
Anyway, the point is CASH RUNWAY.
Any other thoughts? I am just watching passively here.
$ARWR dumped this for a small profit. No need to hold it any longer and watch it go negative again. I’m sure this will go the way of $ICPT and jump $200/sh in a day and not fizzle out like $ICPT did. Or it flop down to $14 in the coming week and meander there for the remainder of the year
$ALT Historical Precedent For Buyout
Recent comparable transactions:
Intercept Pharma ($ICPT) acquired by Alfasigma for $794M after mixed NASH data
Akero ($AKRO) had big-pharma M&A speculation after Phase 2a/2b readouts
SpringWorks ($SWTX) bought by Merck KGaA after positive Phase 2
Altimmune's current market cap is under $200M after the selloff — that’s low-risk optionality for pharma if the 48-week data confirms durability.
@Indibviduate1 Ole Pete’s story with $GALT is even stranger than being paid to distort things for shorts.
He lost a ton of money on $ICPT while he was carrying those big bags someone named scarliver a long here started pointing out that the drug was unsafe and that $GALT or others would be the first to market in late stage MALSD where the patients are very fragile.
Now lil Peter is an unhinged internet troll not even short and not even making minimum wage here on this thing.
Look up what happened to ICPT and do your DD on what is about ready to happen here.
Then block him and hold for the ride to start.
@Mr_Peter I’m not saying people would win. I’m not an attorney or a judge.
I’m saying it would suck to defend yourself against a barrage of lawsuits from a bunch of people with money and means.
That’s worse than losing the money and being wrong on $ICPT
That’s worse than seeing you troll this board every hour with your nonsense.
