$MIRM Jesus Christ, I remember the duscussions which one is better, this or $ALBO. Case closed I would say. I was in ALBO BO and made my 70%, but most shareholders got just fckd there.
$ALBO Updated odds, per Chat:
My current estimate is ~48% odds of a $10 CVR payout by Dec. 31, 2027, versus 52% odds it expires worthless. This is up from my prior ~40% estimate because the Phase 3 BOLD trial is now Active, Not Recruiting with primary completion expected around June 2026, reducing timeline and enrollment risk. Odevixibat also benefits from an established FDA safety record in other pediatric liver diseases. The biggest remaining risk is not efficacy, but whether the FDA requires an additional confirmatory trial or follow-up study. If FDA approval for biliary atresia is granted based solely on BOLD/BOLD-EXT data, the CVR should pay $10. My current probability-weighted value is about $4.80 per CVR.
$ALBO Ran CVR success odds through ChatGPT:
If I had to handicap the CVR today:
Outcome Probability
CVR pays $10
~42%
CVR expires worthless
~58%
One thing I’d tell you as an ALBO CVR holder:
The single most important moment will be the first topline BOLD results in 2026.
If transplant-free survival improvement looks meaningful, the CVR odds could jump from ~40% → 70% overnight.
Timeline of the next events to watch
These are the real catalysts:
Event
Likely timing
BOLD trial topline
Q2–Q3 2026
Major liver conference data
late 2026
NDA filing
late 2026 / early 2027
FDA decision
late 2027
$ALBO i run a compare from Jan 2025 and Dec 2025. Jan because trial had been fully recruited. We have one a month - which is excellent news - in the trial completion date. Seems like Ipsen now has confident to say 26 June instead of 31 July 2026 which is great. I am (quite…) confident we would have the CVRs still valid for FDA decision so I think success will rely on the results from the study only now… 🤞
