SCHP

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$SCHP chatter on StockTwits

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  rsmracks@rsmracksAug 30

  $TLT $SGOV $SCHP $VGIT $SHY Here’s a question. Will this cup form? I guarantee you that 9% on the 10 year would shutdown borrowing. Refinancing would collapse. Rolling loans on CRE’s would bankrupt thousands of businesses. Inflation would be gone. Deflation would roar. I’m not suggesting it moves to 9% but 5.5% is highly possible. 30 year to 6.5% Nobody wants to hold debt for less than 5-7% The next few months are going to be interesting. Could see some serious volatility. The VIX sure is quiet lately. Circling back to that 6.5% on the 30 year. The TLT could still flash $66-68 I’m just saying. $82 has been a solid floor, but time will tell. https://wolfstreet.com/2026/08/29/us-government-sold-797-billion-of-treasury-securities-this-week-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-4-73-30-year-yield-5-22/

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  rsmracks@rsmracksAug 22

  $TLT $VGIT $SCHP $SGOV $SHY I don’t see 10 to 30 year bonds falling until we’ve officially entered a recession. I still won’t be surprised to see the 30 year move above 6% and 10 year above 5%. “It took the bond market only two days to undo the one-day effect of Bessent’s second hocus-pocus show in August. It had taken the bond market almost two weeks to undo the effect of Bessent’s first hocus-pocus show at the beginning of August. If there is a third hocus-pocus show, the effect may be gone in one day (and we’ll start labeling them Hocus-Pocus 1, Hocus-Pocus 2, etc. to be able to keep track of them”. I’ve been calling for a 200 point basis spread for two years now. It’s coming. Nobody wants to hold trillions in debt for nothing less than 6%. Especially in this inflationary environment. At some point, I will begin scaling back into TLT however. At $82 is solid support. Regardless of it falls to $66-68, we can accumulate and simply wait for what we know is coming. QE

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  rsmracks@rsmracksAug 19

  $TLT $VGIT $B $SCHP $SPY There was a solid floor for the TLT at $82 as mentioned previously. Unfortunately there is another level below it around $66-68 That’s where it was heading, but that got put on hold today with the intervention. Here’s the thing, can they really keep yields from rising long term? I don’t believe so. A truly named recession will be the only way yields back off. There’s too much debt that has to be refinanced or freshly financed. People want paid. My call for a mid 2027 recession remains in place. Let’s use the SPY $850 level. When the collapse occurs, the retracement levels Are $633 and $500 That would be a 25-40% drop. Just saying, don’t think it can’t happen. What’s in your wallet? Got GOLD? https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2090136718397911100?s=46

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  rsmracks@rsmracksAug 4

  $TLT $SGOV $SCHP $VGIT $BND Good information from WolfStreet on the bond market for those with more questions. I’m personally one of the people concerned about longer dated bonds, hence the reason I exited my TLT position. It’s undetermined which way the 30 year is going. I personally think it could move to 6+% That would mean the price of TLT could fall to $60-70 I posted my retracement chart the other day. $68 can’t be ruled out. We’re currently sitting on a solid support area around $82 I’m still on the sidelines and only holding a 2.06% position in SCHP currently. I will however eventually scale back my miners positions and transition back to the barbell with 30% position weight to treasuries. TLT VGIT SGOV My SCHP position will be eliminated when I think the 30 year has peaked. Timing won’t be perfect, but that’s the plan. https://wolfstreet.com/2026/08/01/six-years-into-bond-bear-market-30-year-treasury-yield-hits-5-28-yield-curve-steepens-but-spreads-are-still-too-narrow/

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  rsmracks@rsmracksAug 4

  $TLT $SGOV $VGIT $SCHP Where is yield going to go? I’ve moved out of everything in the short term except SCHP. Only a small position. At some point, I will begin building my barbell again. SGOV VGIT TLT And add more to SCHP. It’s getting dicey. Oil says yields go higher. Paper oil could get whipsawed like paper silver did when it ran to $120 earlier this year. I still say WTI is heading to $300 long term. $XOM

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  rsmracks@rsmracksAug 2

  $TLT $SGOV $SCHP $VGIT I’m only holding a small position in SCHP right now. I eliminated my TLT position back at $87+ and took all of my SGOV and VGIT funds to increase my mining positions, I will be looking to begin scaling back into all of them again in the coming months. While I continue to be well overweight miners and energy, as each month passes, I’m going to move back to at least 30% treasuries. If I don’t like what I see in the mining sector soon, I will begin trimming and taking some profits again. My main goal is capital preservation and missing some upside isn’t worth the downside risks. I still believe we get one more strong move for miners into year end. Then, as we move into 2027, energy makes a blow off the top move into a named recession. TLT is getting back into a great accumulation cycle and DCA will work well. SGOV is great for holding cash. SCHP helps with inflation and VGIT catches intermediate levels. No Muni’s or corporate bonds for me by year end.

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  rsmracks@rsmracksJul 27

  $SPY $TLT $SCHP $VGIT $BND Stocks fall. Bond prices fall. Oil stays strong along with all commodities. That’s what happens in higher yield environments. The 10 year could very well move to 6% The 30 year to 7% The amount of debt in the world just isn’t sustainable. This business cycle is almost done. Margin compression will come into 2027 as miners and energy companies make a huge move higher. The earnings aren’t coming from technology now, they’re coming from miners and energy. Semiconductors have peaked. When that bubble pops, watch out below. Stagflation is now. Growth isn’t there. Mid 2027 recession call is still intact. Prepare yourselves. https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/25/long-term-treasury-yields-jump-as-bloodied-bond-market-gets-edgier-about-inflation-the-massive-new-debt/

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  rsmracks@rsmracksJul 23

  $TLT $BND $BGT $DLY $SCHP The bond market isn’t happy right now at all. Nobody wants to hold this massive amount of federal, state and corporate debt for cheap interest. 5%👉6% is cheap. I think we see this move to 7-8% The FED knows the real economy is in a recession already and can’t raise rates, but at the same time, we have the most debt ever coming to market. There isn’t enough liquidity to fund all of these IPO’s and every investment vehicle available today. The Big Ugly is coming. Maybe sooner than my call for mid 2027. It’s getting real dicey now. Miners and energy companies are going to report tremendous earnings the next 2+ quarters. Inflation is real. Margin compression is happening everywhere except a few areas. Earnings expectations will be slashed heading into 2027. Buckle up.

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  rsmracks@rsmracksJul 8

  $SGOV $VGIT $SCHP $TLT Bonds bottomed when oil bottomed in 2020. Bond yields will continue higher for years to come. Debt won’t get cheaper. Keep scaling in and accumulate. Bonds could very well outperform the US market the next 10 years. Oil loves high yields. $XOP https://x.com/randgroup/status/2074645136886338020?s=46

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  rsmracks@rsmracksJul 7

  $TLT $SCHP $BND $SGOV $VGIT All charts are setting up for higher rates across the board, but I think the FED holds their rate where it is through the mid terms. Regardless of what the FED does, it’s simply going to cost more to borrow money for years to come. Home mortgages will not get cheaper. Corporate debt will not get cheaper. The interest our government pays on the debt will definitely not get cheaper. The debt burdens are piling up. The GDP will turn negative soon. https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/04/six-month-treasury-yield-rises-to-4-bond-market-tells-the-fed-to-get-on-with-the-rate-hikes/

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  rsmracks@rsmracksJul 7

  $TLT $SGOV $SHY $SCHP $VGIT I just don’t see longer dated bond yields coming down anytime soon. Here’s the scenario if this happens. I’m still saying a bear steepener is coming. 200 basis point spread. FED can’t raise rates. They can’t cut rates either. Hands are tied. Borrowing money isn’t going to get cheaper. For no one. Buckle up. A lot going on right now. What’s your plan?

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  VTS@VictorTwitsJul 4

  $SCHP $SGOV $SPY $TLT $VGIT that’s good news; offshore repo can’t foq is anymore; think !!! it ain’t hard

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  rsmracks@rsmracksJul 4

  $SPY $TLT $SGOV $VGIT $SCHP https://x.com/tavicosta/status/2073095581258715434?s=46 Yes, this does matter. Yields will go higher on longer dated debt. It doesn’t matter what the FED does with short term rates.

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  rsmracks@rsmracksJul 3

  $SPY $TLT $VGIT $SGOV $SCHP I see this chart one forming a cup in the coming years. Debt won’t get cheaper for the US Government or anyone else. The debt balloon 🎈 is real. Second chart. Yeah, that’s not pretty. 🤣 2000 through 2008 and then off to the races we went into 2026+. It’s not sustainable. We’re not going to grow out of this debt burden. Chart three. In due time, we could see interest expense vs. tax receipts as high as the 1980’s. 50+% You should have started preparing yourselves months ago for The Big Ugly, it’s coming. https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/30/inflation-nominal-economic-growth-to-the-rescue-the-us-governments-ugly-fiscal-mess/

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  toni selby@DattgirlJun 17

  $SPCX call put ratio this morning going into launch is 1:3 to 1. Riding $SCHP 2x long... Will update

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