$INCY reported a slight decrease in Niktimvo Q1 26 sales v Q4 25. By contrast, $SNY reported slightly higher Rezurock sales in Q1 23 v Q4 22. Remember, Rezurock was approved ~4 years earlier than Niktimvo.
The attached graph compares Rezurock sales by quarter (est in US dollars @ 1.1 to 1) v Niktimvo by quarter. Sanofi reports in Euros. The timing is not perfect apples to apples but it's close
While the graph may appear discouraging to $SNDX investors, Niktimvo sales are still dramatically outperforming the Rezurock sales forecast KDMN provided Sanofi that was, at least partially, the basis for Sanofi's offer to buy Rezurock for $1.9B.
KDMN forecast $63MM in FY22 Rezurock sales (its 1st full fiscal year). Niktimvo actual sales were $152MM in its 1st full year on the market, more than 2X+ higher than Rezurock's forecast. Does this mean Niktimvo is worth 2X+ more than Rezurock?
Sanofi acquired $KDMN 7 weeks after Rezurock's FDA approval for $1.9B. Actual sales were unknown
$XBI
$SNDX 's partner $INCY reported $36.2MM in Q2 2025 Niktimvo sales. Should Niktimvo sales be flat the rest of the year, Niktimvo would do roughly $122MM in launch year sales.
SNDX & INCY share in Niktimvo profits/losses on a 50/50 basis. SNDX sold a 13.8% Niktimvo US royalty to $RPRX for $350MM last November (roughly a $2.536B valuation as a royalty).
When $KDMN was acquired for $1.9B by $SNY, KDMN projected $63MM in launch year sales. Rezurock was launched the prior fall so sales were already ramping going into their launch year.
Our simple point is it appears Niktimvo could outsell Rezurock's projections by 2X (if sales stay flat). This multiple could be higher if Niktimvo sales continue to grow as analysts project.
This is not investment advice but if Niktimvo outsells Rezurock by 2X in its launch year, does this mean Niktimvo's hypothetical M&A value is 2X higher? We're genuinely curious what investors believe.
$SNDX, while having a good day, is off ~60% since 7/16/24. At $10.20/sh we get $870MM in market cap
Peers w/Revuforj's projected revenue & gross margin profile (if label expansion is approved in 10/25) like CTIC, AGIO oncology, SRRA, KYTH, DCPH & KDMN were acquired for $1.7 to $2.2B
SNDX projects $90MM in Niktimvo product sales in its 1st full launch year. $KDMN forecast Rezurock to generate $63MM in its 1st full year when it was acquired for $1.9B. If new drugs are worth some NPV of their projected sales, and if Niktimvo is projected to generate 50% more sales dollars in its launch year, does that not suggest Niktimvo may be worth more? SNDX splits Niktimvo profits/losses 50/50 w/ $INCY & sold $RPRX a 13.8% Niktimvo royalty. Our point is SNDX owns roughly 1/3 of Niktimvo
RPRX estimates its 13.8% royalty should be fully repaid @ 2.35X its $350MM investment or $822.5MM by FY38 (meaning RPRX projects $5.96B in cumulative Niktimvo US product sales by FY38)
This is not investment advice. $XBI
$SNDX forecast $87.8MM in FY25 Niktimvo sales @ 12/31/24 as SNDX recorded a $12.116 current liability at 12/31/24 to accrue the estimated 13.8% royalty due $RPRX. FY25 is Niktimvo's 1st full year on the market
When $KDMN was acquired for $1.9B by Sanofi in 9/21, KDMN forecast $63MM in Rezurock sales for its 1st full year on the market (per attachment). Using these estimates, Niktimvo is forecast to generate ~40% more dollars in 1st full year sales (both were approved mid-summer the prior year)
Niktimvo's clinical profile appears almost identical to Rezurock per attached FDA press releases. Niktimvo has a slight advantage with a faster time to 1st response
If new drugs are worth a multiple of projected sales, & if Niktimvo is forecast to generate ~40% more sales dollars in 1st year sales, does this mean Niktimvo's hypothetical M&A value is ~40% more than Rezurock? This is a question & not a statement.
SNDX splits Niktimvo profits/losses 50/50 with $INCY but sold a 13.8% royalty to RPRX
The attachment is an overview of how our investment club sees $SNDX hypothetical M&A valuation. Of course we could be wrong
SNDX shares Niktimvo's operating profits & losses with $INCY 50/50. $RPRX purchased a 13.8% royalty on Niktimvo sales for $350MM suggesting a $2.536B Niktimvo valuation (using RPRX's investment by itself). RPRX disclosed it anticipates an IRR in the "low teens." The RPRX transaction was not considered in the attachment.
Using the $KDMN $1.9B EV acquisition in 9/21 as a peer or comp for valuation, SNDX's 36.2% share would be worth ~$700MM.
Revumenib FY28 consensus = $533MM. Using a M&A Year 4 multiple of 3.0X would = $1.6B valuation. Peers get as much as 5.0X (see BPMC 14D9 filing)
Last, SNDX ended Q125 with $600MM cash
Add Niktimvo, Revumenib & cash & SNDX would get $2.9B in a hypothetical M&A transaction. With 102MM FD shares o/s that's $28.40/sh
Worst case, take off $400MM to repay RPRX or $4/share.
Yes perhaps this is aggressive but are we in the ballpark?
We did not include $SNDX as one of the 59 in the peer group that scored a second cancer therapy approval because technically $INCY got credit for Niktimvo but perhaps SNDX should be. INCY's Jakafi was first approved 11/16/11 where our review went back 12 years. $SGEN 1st approval came in 2011 as well.
Incidentally, $KURA (Ziftomenib v Revumenib) & $KDMN (Rezurock v Niktimvo) are good SNDX peers for potential M&A valuation.
@StockmoverTr Ja bei $KDMN. Die haben mit Ablauf des PDUFA die Zulassung für ihr Medikament rezurok bekommen, was bei Blut und Knochenkrebs hilft. Zwei Monate später hat Sanofi knapp 2 Milliarden geboten. Woher ich komme, da kommst selber drauf. 😉
@M1chaelJ0seph yes same as $KDMN years ago. The CEO was in jail and wasn't allowed to run the company anymore. Then his brother did. What happened is history.
@We_Like_daStooooock I think the question is, how high is a possible monetarization of the upcoming product. A positive example was $KDMN with the third line drug rezurok. Negative in my eyes would be $VBIV. They had a successful pdufa for some vaccine and no one seemed to care. What is your opinion about $CKPT and cosi?
$MCRB if you think goldman has any clue, look at the history. I did research about some acquired biotech companies, share price at acquisition and price target by goldman, a vast majority didn't make any sense. Here are a few notable ones $KDMN goldman pt right before acquisition $4 acquired at $9.5, $ARCT price target by goldman right before acquisition $62 but was acquired at $130, $DTIL PT by goldman was $18 but acquired at $37, $THOR pt by goldman $28 but acquired at $68
