$NVVE Institutional coverage tracks an average target of $25.00. - With a float this small, an artificial long-term target means almost nothing on an intraday scale. If unexpected news or volume hits the stock, it will blow past or drop away from technical targets completely decoupled from corporate valuations.!
$HODO $RBNE $JHG
S&P Global Ratings downgraded Janus Henderson Group to BB from BBB+ after the asset manager's acquisition and delisting by an investor group led by Trian Fund Management and General Catalyst. The agency also cut Janus Henderson's senior unsecured notes to B+ from BBB+, citing their weaker position in the company's new capital structure.
The deal closed on June 30, with Janus Henderson merged into Jupiter Co. Ltd., which financed the acquisition with a $2.9 billion term loan due 2033 and expanded its revolving credit facility to $500 million. S&P expects leverage to remain between 3.0x and 4.0x over the next year and assigned a stable outlook, while warning that leverage above 5.0x or weaker operating performance could trigger further downgrades. $JHG
$JHG | Janus Henderson: Victory Exits, Trian Locks In — Optionality Gone, Convergence Trade Remains
"Victory exits and Trian raises, shifting JHG from a high-convexity bidding situation to a tight spread. With optionality gone, investors must reassess risk/reward as trade transitions to convergence." - Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar
Read more: https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/janus-henderson-victory-exits-trian-locks-in-optionality-gone-convergence-trade-remains
$ABX.X : This Setup Could Move Fast ⏩
Abacus Global Management is expanding in life insurance and alternative assets, using data driven underwriting and longevity focused investing as the chart nears a key inflection point.
Technical view:
1️⃣ Major support: ~$8.50–$9.00 zone
2️⃣ Price holding above rising trendline, maintaining higher lows structure
3️⃣ Recent pullback looks constructive, potentially forming a continuation setup
Reclaim levels to watch:
📈 $10.50 near-term resistance (recent high area)
📈 $11.90–$12.45 mid-range supply zone
📈 $13.25–$14.00 breakout range for trend expansion (Analyst pt price)
Fundamental backdrop:
🥇 Focus on longevity-based financial products and life settlement markets
🥈 Scalable model combining insurance + asset management
🥉 Positioned within a growing alternative investment niche tied to demographics
Communicated Disclaimer: https://bit.ly/4ux1ZOK
Sector Peers: $AMG $APAM $SEIC $JHG
Janus Henderson announced that Trian Fund Management rejected Victory Capital’s revised acquisition offer. Trian, Janus Henderson’s largest shareholder with a 20.7% stake, opposes Victory’s bid, which competes with its own privatization plan. Trian cited “no clear path” to close a deal with Victory due to potential risks.
Victory recently increased its $8.6B cash-and-stock offer, escalating the bidding war against Trian, led by Nelson Peltz. Janus Henderson shares continue to trade above Trian’s $49 offer, signaling that the market anticipates a deal exceeding that price. Analysts expect further headlines in the coming weeks.
$JHG $VCTR
$JHG | Janus Henderson: Higher Bid, Lower Certainty — Event-Driven Upside Hinges on Execution, Not Price
"Janus Henderson is a contested takeover with a higher but riskier Victory bid versus a lower, more certain Trian deal. The trade offers optionality on a bump, but carries negative carry & break risk." - Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar
Read more: https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/janus-henderson-higher-bid-lower-certainty-event-driven-upside-hinges-on-execution-not-price
$WEN Here’s an idea for Trian and General Catalyst - instead of continuing to push for your $7.4B acquisition of $JHG, let Victory win the bidding war with their $8.6B offer. JHG investors benefit from receiving a $1.2B higher valuation, and Trian’s 20.6% stake means they’d come out with almost $1.8B. NOWWW, if you take WEN private and either pay down or restructure the debt, you’ve got yourself a money printing machine
Janus Henderson Group shares rose about 2.5% premarket after Victory Capital Holdings submitted an improved acquisition offer.
The revised bid includes $40 per share in cash plus 0.25 Victory shares per Janus share, giving Janus shareholders about a 31% stake in the combined company. Based on recent prices, the offer values Janus at $56.84 per share, a 37% premium to its unaffected price and $1.2 billion in additional consideration versus the prior proposal.
Victory said the deal is fully financed with no contingencies and highlighted strong client retention, addressing prior concerns. CEO David C. Brown said the offer provides upfront cash while allowing investors to participate in long-term upside.
The proposal comes as Janus also evaluates an alternative transaction with Trian Partners, with Victory urging negotiations for what it calls a superior offer.
$JHG $VCTR
$JHG new proposal of cash plus shares by $VCTR. Interesting setup, the all-cash proposals are better as fixed, though.
CNBC's David Faber said that he wasn't able to find out how Trian and General Catalyst will respond to the offer. "But they clearly know they're probably going to have to do something if they want to own the company".
Check also BARK's two buyout proposals, one by insiders with a 13% premium and one by Marcus Lemonis with a 40% premium. They have formed the special committee etc and hired advisors.
