Graph comparing $DAWN Ojemda US product sales by quarter post FDA approval to the same from ZGNX's Zogenix & CTIC's Vonjo. Both ZGNX & CTIC were acquired for enterprise values of $1.7B
For add'l perspective, we added the raw sales data (starting the 1st full fiscal quarter post approval) & included $GBT & Tesaro sales. DAWN's Ojemda sales in Q4 2025 were in the same ballpark as Tesaro's Zujula (later acquired for $5.1B). We are not remotely suggesting DAWN would be worth the same as $TSRO
Cancer research is a losing business model. 95 to 97% of new cancer drugs in Phase 1 trials are never approved. This is why 95% of clinical-stage oncology focused bios fail. While Ojemda sales are impressive, last year at JP Morgan DAWN's CEO said DAWN was going to focus on research. The odds, again the odds, are DAY-301 & that drug acquired from Mersana will fail & that DAWN shareholder value is maximized via M&A exit.
O/c DAWN could beat the odds. This is not investment advice. $XBI $IBB
@cubie @Jeremymartin007 @simon58 @Zorrelak @judgeyoung2 @yipmen @ribbey @EBE_day @TraderRapp @tonyctl @YipMen this is another blast from the past… $GBT wow
Attached graph includes $CRMD product sales by quarter post launch versus $GBT (left). CRMD sales are actuals for DefenCath's 1st 4 quarters on the market, CRMD guidance for Q225 (5th quarter)and analyst consensus for the next 2 quarters. CRMD v GBT sales appear remarkably similar. Both generate gross margins in the mid-90s.
The graph to the right compares CRMD's market cap at $11.50/share as of 7/2/25 (that may not reflect a very recent ~10% dilution) v. GBT's $5.4B M&A enterprise value (acquired by Pfizer in 8/22).
GBT management provided Pfizer a 10-year revenue forecast that is roughly twice CRMD analyst consensus revenue estimates so the 2 are likely not apples to apples but...
This is not investment advice but CRMD's share price has traded lower for the last 7 days after closing a financing with accredited investors at roughly $12.87/share last week. CRMD appears a potential M&A candidate.
Of course we could be wrong. $XBI $NBI
The attachment provides snapshots of the "Selected Precedent Transaction Analysis" from $SWTX preliminary 14A filing dated 5/15/25 compared to the 14A filing from $MRTX dated 11/2/23. Links are provided below to both (page 52/53).
We are not experts nor qualified to opine on valuation matters but it appears Centerview Partners was engaged as the third-party expert bankers for both SWTX & MRTX. Centerview appears to calculate different Year 4 M&A revenue multiples paid for the $GBT $CCXI & the GWPH M&A transactions. Are we wrong?
Centerview Partners is generally recognized as the experts in biopharma M&A. We're not challenging their work. We're simply hoping to understand why the Year 4 multiples would be different to one transaction versus the other? Explanations are welcome. Thank you. $XBI
This is for entertainment purposes only. We may be mischaracterizing these data points.
Link to SWTX 14A:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1773427/000110465925049624/tm2513796-1_prem14a.htm#tBOTM
Link to MRTX 14A:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576263/000114036123051002/edge20012673x2_defm14a.htm
$SWTX
It appears $BIVV was the only comm'l-stage bio M&A under $20B (ie excl $SGEN & $CELG) the last 12 years with 2 FDA approved pot'l Blockbusters. All M&A otherwise includes pipelines but 95-98% of new cancer drugs in Phase 1 fail. In non-oncology it's 80-90%
Cubist's Cubicin was 3 years from patent exp @ M&A date while Zerbaxa had active PDUFA so they were never forecast to both hit $1B in the same year. ARRY had 2 drugs approved but were they not essentially 1 combo therapy?
DCPH, DOVA & AERI had 2+ approved &/or late-stage. Not 1 forecast collective sales north of $1.1B in any 1 year
PFE paid $5.4B for $GBT in FY22 then took GBT's 1 FDA approved product Oxbryta off the market last year. Is this not an example of why discount rates in ROI calcs s/b lower (& hence a higher NPV) with 2 products?
This is not investment advice but is there any peer M&A of 2 FDA approved products the last 12 years not considered?
$GBT Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (NYSE: GBTG): Navigating the Evolving Business Travel Landscape https://beyondspx.com/article/global-business-travel-group-inc-nyse-gbtg-navigating-the-evolving-business-travel-landscape
$ALT As expected, $AMGN has 9B in cash and needs an obesity win after their "me too" clown show... other rotten tomatoes mentioned are the usual suspects, including $PFE and their litany of bad press. FYI the outrage over their failed 5.4B $GBT acquisition and resulting discontinuation of Oxbryta is why I don't view Pfizer as a likely buyer for any company anytime soon...
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/fierce-biotechs-rotten-tomatoes-2024
