Source: Financial Modeling Prep · peers by sector/industry
Insider activity (SEC Form 4)
No recent Form 4 filings on EDGAR — either no insider transactions reported recently or this isn't a SEC-registered issuer.
Valuation
Trading at 13.4× sales vs its 7.5× historical median P/S.
Fair value ≈ $14.35 · price $25.59 today
Overvalued · 78% above
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Fair-value line = the stock's median historical P/S × sales per share. Price below the orange line = cheap vs its own history; above = expensive. Not investment advice.
$URGN 10-year analyst consensus revenue estimates versus the 10-year revenue forecast prepared by $DCPH management provided to Ono when Ono opted to acquire DCPH for an enterprise value of $2.1B
Analysts project URGN to generate roughly $2.7B in product revenues over the next 5 years. This is roughly 50% more than DCPH projected when acquired for $2.1B (though 10year revenue forecasts are closer).
As we recall, at the time the acquisition was announced in Jun 2024, DCPH had filed or was about to file for Vimseltinib approval. Vimseltinib was approved by the FDA on 2/14/25.
We're curious if investors believe DCPH is a good peer/comp to guesstimate a hypothetical URGN M&A exit valuation. We'd think, all other things being equal, URGN would get a tad more (though DCPH's gross margins were 5% higher).
Using DCPH as a peer (which is risky), we'd guess URGN would exit for between $2.3 & $2.6B in EV (not market cap). Pushback?
This is not investment advice. This is speculation.
$XBI $IBB
The graph compres $URGN Year 1 - 7 (FY26 - 32) analyst consensus to the Year 1 - 7 (FY24 - 30) revenue forecast prepared by $DCPH management/BOD presented Ono when Ono opted to acquire DCPH for an enterprise value of ~$2.1B. URGN analyst consensus is provided as well as the lowest URGN analyst estimate.
URGN consensus is as of the morning of 5/6/26, before URGN announced Q126 sales exceeded analyst estimates by over 10%. Hence it is likely URGN estimates will be revised higher than what is reflected on the attachment.
Per Seeking Alpha, there are 8 analysts who cover URGN. Five analysts provide FY26 - 30 estimates. All 5 analysts project URGN to generate more revenues over the next 5 years than DCPH.
If analysts believe URGN will generate 15-20% more revenues, does that mean, in theory, URGN is worth 15-20% more in a hypothetical M&A exit?
This is not investment advice but if URGN was ever considering a M&A exit, there does not appear to be a better time, but WTF do we know
$XBI $IBB
$AGIO A year later, and 8 years later
These senior buffoons did what ?
1) sold options
2) never bought stock with their money
3) never created value for the PSU or RSU, lol
4 ) created a new 3 year low , after Fouse’s CEO reign and catastrophe of $16.95
5) 12 months later, trading at $2 above last December, and 50% lower than the beginning of the Fouse Reign of NOTHING
ROI for a year, $25 to $27 ….OH WOW
ROI for 8 years of senior execs , sucking down a salary and you:get : NEGATIVE 50%
Misfits are always outed
Steve Hoerter was here, left nd ruined $DCPH. He too was a clown
$COGT Carbon copy of $QURE , hahahaha
At $47 …tuts made a bundle , flipped it and now the FDA gave them a slap !!
Sure ..put the offering out..so did $DCPH …Decipher Therapeutics..at $60 , and never made it there again with their GIST cancer drug ..and were bought at $25.58
Pfizer owns this market …DCPH found out, so too, will COGT
Carbon Copy ….⬇️printer couldn’t get the press release out fast enough , hahahah
And Leerink was with the QURE , offering in Oct at $47 !!!
Gee….another scam
$AGIO can I lead you to water ???? Sure
Will you drink it …obviously not !!!
Someone gave you bad info….
Now for the real deal…do some homework on:
HIM ….( then come back and post , nonsense )
This brain power and CEO stewardship doesn’t, and never did exist here or at
$NTLA
$CADL
$BLUE
$DCPH
$CADL not with a narcissist as CEO .
Looks at what , Nick Leschly , did do $BLUE ..Blue Bird Bio
His bullshit pitted wall st against him.
Then, the same at $DCPH , decipher therapeutics
A $80 valuation gone to shit over Steve Hoerter and his board of narcissistic yah-hoos , sold for $25 !!!
Keep it up TAK , and Manning !!
@Hero2Zero
No I do not know the historical odds of label expansions. It is a great question too. $BPMC had 2 major label expansion wins. $DCPH hoped its Qinlock therapy for GIST would go from 4L to 2L (or maybe it was 1L) and did not. $GTHX hoped Cosela would be approved in colorectal & one more but did not. We'll see what happens with $IMCR 's hopeful expansion into melanoma. If you ever find a source that'd be terrific to know.
There are multiple studies on likelihood of approval of new drugs. Attached is one that shows likelihoods of approval by therapy type & a NIH model from 1 phase to the next. We use these to model. You'll see success rates of new cancer drugs are the most dismal. MIT has a study lower than the nature.com article (less than 5%).
I wish I had a better answer. Thank you for the question. Good luck.
Attached is a list of 6 commercial-stage bios acquired within the last 6 years with 10-year revenue projections & gross profit margin profiles consistent with $DAWN
These 6 peers incl $DCPH were acquired at 0.33 to 0.42X their cumulative 10-year revenue projections. DAWN's market cap at $7.08/share is roughly $729MM per Yahoo Finance which is roughly 0.11X DAWN 10-year analyst consensus revenue estimates.
If DAWN's revenue projections are credible AND if DAWN is worth a revenue multiple consistent with these 6 peers (2 BIG IFS), then shareholders are being screwed & DAWN's BOD needs to consider alternate strategies to maximize shareholder value.
The lost opportunity is even more apparent because DAWN has just under $500MM cash. Put simpler, DAWN's enterprise value is not 0.05X 10-year projected revenues.
Perhaps the disconnect is due to Ojemda's 6/2035 patent expiration but it's our understanding projections past 10 years are heavily discounted in M&A.
Next up is $SNDX & $AUTL $XBI
$DAWN trades @ 0.09X cumulative 10-year analyst consensus projected revenues. DAWN's enterprise value is ~$150MM at $6.20/sh as of 5/30/25 which is only 0.02X 10-year projected sales
The attachment shows 3 oncology focused peers ($CTIC KDMN & $DCPH) were acquired @ 0.33 - 0.39X cumulative 10-year projected revenues per the forecasts prepared by the acquiree's mgmt. We cannot confirm DAWN is an appropriate peer.
In Jan. 2025 at JP Morgan, DAWN's CEO warned investors mgmt was going to risk the value generated by Ojemda's approval on DAY-301. DAWN's CEO came from $STRO that trades for a fraction of cash. Since historically 95 to 98% of new cancer drugs in Phase 1 fail, the odds appear 95 - 98% DAY-301 will fail. With Ojemda's patent expiring in June 2035 per a Google search which appears consistent with DAWN's 10K footnote, it appears DAWN shareholder value is most likely maximized via sale. We c/b wrong
It used to be considered common sense for small cap bios to sell after approval. $XBI
$DCPH enterprise value at $6.27/share is $165MM.
The attachment compares DAWN analyst consensus revenue estimates for the next 10 years (FY25 - FY34) to the revenue forecasts as prepared by 3 peer bios acquired over the last 3 years. DAWN's Ojemda is anticipated to generate roughly the same revenue dollars as these peer cancer therapies yet DAWN's enterprise value is literally a fraction of the peers. This is obviously not the same as market cap.
DAWN management & BOD should consider a sale as it appears the odds are overwhelming shareholder value would be maximized via M&A.
There is enough existing patient data today to know whether Firefly Phase 3 trial will succeed. History confirms there is a 95-98% likelihood DAY-301 will fail (& should it work $LLY will probably get there first).
Of course we could be wrong.
$XBI $NBI $CTIC
$CADL gee someone gets it !!!
Tak is a con …and senior execs are too smug to bother dealing with
Same happened at $DCPH had to sell at half price from 2019, in 2023 , because Steve Hoerter was an idiot and the Board was full of themselves and narcissists !
TAK is following TRUMPS tariffs success , NONE !!!
$AGIO $CADL $QURE ….add one more that had to sell at $25 dollars a share !! $DCPH ..their CEO was a failure as well, Steve Hoerter , bounced from AGIO to DCPH and failed to create value …thus SOLD !!! 50% discount !!!
$DCPH Deciphera Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (DCPH): Poised for Continued Growth with Promising Pipeline and Robust Commercial Execution https://beyondspx.com/article/deciphera-pharmaceuticals-inc-dcph-poised-for-continued-growth-with-promising-pipeline-and-robust-commercial-execution
$QURE ..I said the same thing about $DCPH ..an inexperienced CEO HOERTER who was a manufacturing engineer, NEVER A CEO..and he sold DCPH for 50 CENTS on the dollar or $25 a share …a $50 dollar company , that he , like Matt , fcuked up.
Once fcuked up, they end up with siht offers , and cash is low and CEO’s without deep pocket friends , CAVE !!!!
matt will cave for 50 cents on the dollar , because he too , is without a brain , BUT BUT a stock broker and they only care about themselves and their commission!
Thus Matt will tell the board, lol, it is a good deal , lol..when it is a fire sale and Mat gets to walk on HIS BIG FCUK UP ! 400M and Pennies on royalties, won’t get the HD drug thru the FDA without more dilution or some fcuk up by Matt in a private placement , lol
I called DCPH to a tee, back in 2019 , I was right
