$URGN Zusduri sales by quarter post launch v $DAWN Ojemda. The graphs excludes Jelmyto sales that have averaged $20-$22MM per quarter.
DAWN was acquired for an EV of $2.15B. This is not investment advice. We're genuinely curious if URGN investors believe Zusduri is worth more in a M&A exit than DAWN because Zusduri is outselling Ojemda?
We'll post updated URGN analyst projections v DAWN management projections within the next few weeks.
Again this is not investment advice. Remember URGN is obligated to forward a financier a royalty on product sales that may affect an exit valuation (we have no idea).
$XBI $IBB $NBI
Trailing twelve-month Win Rate (realized gains/losses)
$DAWN (-40% loss) and $WVE (-22% loss) the two major ones I got wrong
(ironically, launch metrics for the former- esp duration on therapy- started to show it was turning around but I sold early & failed to hold patiently)
Another takeaway from $SCPH & a few others in the past year for that matter $DAWN $APLS $SLNO
Forced selling taking place before buyout on the cheap (need an artificially high premium) $XBI
We've been tracking $URGN since Jelmyto was 1st approved 4/15/20 @ the onset of COVID
URGN has outperformed all peer comm'l-stage oncology focused bios the last 3 months, doubling & then some since URGN closed @ $18 on 3/31/26
The attachment compares URGN 10-year analyst consensus to the same 10-year forecast prepared by $DAWN & provided to Servier when Servier opted to acquire DAWN for an enterprise value of $2.16B
Analysts forecast URGN's 2 products to generate 15% more revenues than DAWN mgmt forecast. Using URGN's 3/31/26 cap table, we calculate URGN's fully diluted EV to be ~$2.4B @ $41.40 per share (exercise caution as we make mistakes & our calc does not consider URGN Q226 stock activity).
DAWN projected an ave 86% gross margin FY26-35. Actual URGN FY25 gross margin = 89%
This is not investment advice. We're sharing analysis. We're curious if URGN investors believe URGN's product profiles warrant a "hypothetical" premium M&A multiple (if URGN was ever acquired)?
$XBI $IBB $NBI
For what it's worth, other Biontech Scanner stocks have done remarkably well including $VKTX $DAWN and $AUR. His two top stocks are next up $AQST and $IOVA.
$VSTM reports Q126 sales of its LGSOC combo Thursday after the close
For its 1st 2 full fiscal quarters post launch, sales of VSTM's combo therapy have tracked sales of CTIC's Vonjo & are handily higher than ZGNX's Fintepla. Both $CTIC & $ZGNX were acquired for enterprise values of $1.7B. If you believe actual product sales are a barometer, again a barometer, for valuation potential then investors should follow VSTM.
If VSTM's Q126 sales are on par or beat analyst estimates then it may affirm VSTM's LGSOC hypothetical M&A exit valuation could be on par with CTIC & ZGNX. Just remember VSTM fully diluted shares are roughly 20% higher.
We'll add a comparison to $DAWN Ojemda sales (VSTM running roughly 1/3 less but DAWN exited at ~$2.2B ish). The dots connect
VSTM has a 2nd asset showing genuine promise in solid tumors with a KRAS 12D mutation (very roughly 15% of all solid tumors, higher in some & lower in others). Updated data is due in Q226.
This is not investment advice. $XBI
$DAWN Servier completes the acquisition of Day One Biopharmaceuticals
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/servier-completes-the-acquisition-of-day-one-biopharmaceuticals-302751627.html
$DAWN Equity Corporate Actions Alert #2026 - 254
Information Regarding the Tender Offer of Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. (DAWN)
https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/TraderNews.aspx?id=ECA2026-254
The tender offer by Servier to acquire all of the outstanding common stock of Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. (DAWN) is scheduled to expire one minute after 11:59 p.m. ET, on April 22, 2026, unless extended or terminated. The subsequent merger is tentatively scheduled to close prior to the market open on April 23, 2026. In anticipation of the closing, the stock will be halted immediately following the after-hours session at or around 7:50 p.m. on April 22, 2026. If the merger closes as planned, the stock will remain halted on the day of closing (April 23rd) and will be suspended effective April 24, 2026.
DAWN shareholders will receive $21.50 per share after closing.
Citizens🏁 $WHWK and said: We are initiating coverage of Whitehawk Therapeutics, Inc. with a Market Outperform rating and price target of $8 based on a cash per share and platform value analysis.
$ABBV $DAWN - Servier PFE LLY
Citizens added—Whitehawk is advancing three highly specific antibody- drug conjugates (ADCs) against clinically validated targets (PTK7, MUC16, SEZ6) with initial proof of concept data expected in 1H27.
With HWK-007 and HWK-016 advancing through a Phase 1 dose-escalation trial, an IND filing for HWK-206 on track for mid-2026, and a cash position of $145.7MM, we believe shares are attractive,
with 75% downside (bear case scenario is $1) and 150% upside (bull case scenario is $10).
$DAWN as this ticker fades into oblivion with the aquisition, I just wanted to shoutout my boy I_am_Sparta for the most stupid biotech takes. I hope he is doing ok, and found the time to study a bit the sector or maybe even get some internship at a pharma company or cro or some shit where he can learn the ropes
