$RFL Another bad sign is that the half dozen or so regular posters on the $CYTH board (OCBadger; MWT; et al) are strangely quiet or missing altogether on this one. And their comments, when made, are quite passive. Almost conciliatory.
It was one thing to pump this compound and trial from $22 a share to pocket change before the acquisition burying it beneath a “real estate” holding company but, perhaps, they’ve been instructed not to do it again because a) the data is good? or b) the data is bad? Which makes more sense?
Release the data before an equity raise Mr. Jonas. Not after! If that happens we know why they’re missing in action. I kinda already do.
$ZVRA After FDA felt political pressure leading to Sarepta’s eteplirsen approval in which the sponsor refused to conduct a legit trial — and while in the midst of helping Orphazyme cobble together a stat-sig Phase 2/3 arimoclomol study by identifying 2-patients unresponsive to therapy and wondering where missing data from 4-patients was (SAE’s provoking the disappearance?) — they were working with $CYTH (now $RFL) on designing a study that would prove whether or not Trappsol-Cyclo was a safe & effective therapy for NPC patients.
It is almost twice as large (104-patients). It is robust with well designed endpoints. And, given the problematic history of eteplirsen and arimoclomol, was unpartnered. No one believed such a study could readout stat-sig. I still don’t.
But neither did FDA which simply asked for a study that could adequately demonstrate a relationship between therapy and the targeted outcome. Completely unfair to the new sponsor, Raphael! But a study embraced by FDA & EMA.
I could have listed a half dozen other likely reasons for a stat-sig miss but want to avoid paying for a premium subscription here or undermining my own investment.
Two things…
On arimoclomol approval, Omeros rejection will likely be highlight as it was based on a poorly designed and executed trial in rare disease studies. But it isn’t quite as effective in amplifying the paradigm shift as a same space molecule would be.
Arimoclomol EU approval will also, following a brief uptake in sympathy, have us crashing hard before TRANSPORT results are known. You’ll see.
The tough reality of the $CYTH investor only gets tougher. But that’s good! Success and failure are two sides of the same coin. And please take comfort in knowing that I’m suffering with you! I really am 🤣🤣🤣
$RFL Our only catalyst is CHMP’s rejection of the arimoclomol application by the end of July - September the odds of which increased after YARTEMLEA’s rejection in June. We saw a little disturbance of the topsoil in early trading today.
Most everyone realizes the odds of TRANSPORT statistical success on the primaries is virtually nonexistent. The reasons are obvious.
▪️Big Pharma disinterest [evidenced by no partner]
▪️General market disinterest evidenced by the crashing share price of $CYTH from $22 to pocket change
▪️Failure to release Topline data as promised in 2025
▪️This message board 🤣
Raphael desperately needs to shift the focus of the traditional investor to a new paradigm in rare disease studies - A well designed and executed trial in consultation with regional agencies that demonstrates an effective relationship between the MOA and targeted gene. ✔️
Arimoclomol’s rejection in the EU will reinforce that shift and be prominently featured in the TRANSPORT press release. ✔️
@TheSuper
Fact #3: I am hopeful that this trial design will reveal with or without a stat-sig result that the molecule does what it says it does mechanistically and that’s all it takes if patients experience benefit. I have supported this fact by providing the latest ultra rare disease documentation on both the FDA and EMA sites.
Fact #4: I have suggested that the greater market has little faith in this un-partnered trial. $CYTH going from $22 a share to pocket change supports this fact.
Fact #5: I have suggested that not having a partner demonstrates that big pharma has little hope despite Scott Fines insistence that they would. If I’m wrong, where are they?
Fact #6: The trading this past week reinforces everything thing I have posted.
Now, take these issues one by one and disprove them with facts. I provided dozens of links to support my positions. I expect you to do the same.
Good luck!
If Google is right, it appears CEO Howard Jonas offloaded nearly 5m of his free shares in Raphael for $15M or so. Why free?
In 2025 he was accredited with purchasing far more than that in $RFL during the merger with $CYTH which appeared bullish, yet, he admitted to not using his own money but, instead, using shares acquired in Cyclo Therapeutics during his “financing” of their operations which gave the appearance of bullishness.
However, let’s focus on today as that’s all we have. Other explanations for his reduced stake here could be that…
1. Google made a mistake! And he still owns 19m shares.
2. The shares weren’t sold but transferred to a private party such as a family member. This wouldn’t require a S-4.
3. The shares weren’t sold but transferred to a buyer of one of his subsidiaries. If true, we could be receiving a PR about one or more of his subsidiaries being sold for in excess of the amount transferred to them in $RFL shares.
Wishful thinking perhaps but possible.
@ricksfeed I hope we don’t. Maybe I’ve made a mistake. Maybe I’m wrong and the market, which viewed Scott Fines unpartnered registration trial with such disdain from both a fiduciary ($CYTH went from $22 a share to pennies) and scientific perspective (an I.V. version of the failed Adrabetadex) is going to be vindicated.
My bullishness on the sequestered TAPPSOL TRANSPORT registration trial may yet prove to be wrongheaded. I don’t dismiss that as it is far more likely than the @Moksi boom he keeps alluding to.
That said, ultimately I expect to be rewarded. Unfortunately, since I firmly believe the company will do a raise to ensure longevity past those investor misunderstanding I doubt I’ll get more than $10 at the top and more likely 5 or 6.
GLTU
$RFL Allow me to dispel of few long myths on any board.
#1 That CEO’s have a fiduciary responsibility to their investors. This one is so silly it makes me double over with laughter. Was it Scott Fines “fiduciary obligation” to secure a partner BEFORE running a large, phase-3 registration trial? Of course it was! Did he? No, he did not!
#2 That by locking up our shares by using high limit orders, traders can’t use them to short the same stock we are long in. I do it all the time knowing full well it doesn’t matter. Naked shorting and dark pool trading suggests it’s almost as valid as big foot is real. And what about Howard’s 19.18 million shares? Are they unavailable to his Wall Street buddies? And how in the hell did he get that basket of common shares in the first place? Ah, those predatory financings of Scott Fines share printing racket known as $CYTH.
Cut the crap! Put down the pom-poms and start thinking people! Still…
$AMRN $CYTH $ZVRA I’m extremely close to closing my position here in $RFL Once the idiot longs return with their parked I.D.’s we know the hedge funds are locked and loaded to go short behind them because that’s where the money is — going short.
P-3 data here is likely NOT STAT-SIG. However, as I’ve repeatedly suggested it DOESN’T HAVE TO BE.
It’s not even the primary catalyst that has moved this share price sky high over the past month.
I can support every facet of the above statement with TANGIBLE FACTS. Can you support the argument against that with something other than the “Beautiful Molecule” theory or the “they waited at 48-Weeks because the data was so good” nonsense/some sense theory? Please stop!
Go back to sleep Cythians before the color we see today becomes the color we see everyday. I’m seeing red just responding to your passive rage.
@TheSuper that sums up the long investor perfectly. He or she thinks they’re on one side or the other, pitted against each other to win a great battle to move the share price up or down. We are not!!! This is why 96-99% of retail investors MOSTLY LONGS lose money.
This is why $AMRN longs went from $22 a share to < $0.50 a share and why $CYTH investors did the same.
It’s why longs capable of critical thinking are booed by pom-pom slinging rubes who forever and always push thoughtful longs that could help them make money by stress testing their theses are to the margins with the block button. 96%ER’s.
It’s why $CYTH investors cheered the village idiot Market Watch Trends from $22 a share to pocket change — a person so vile he was kicked off this platform twice and his I.D. no longer exists. Poor soul!
No, don’t listen to an anyone like me. I identified this as a buy 4-weeks ago at $1.38 by understanding what our true catalyst is — $ZVRA ‘s CHMP verdict in Europe not P-3 data here.
