MBI

$MBI chatter on StockTwits

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  barbaresqo@barbaresqo22h

  $MBI near 52 week lows so I guess I add another tranche. this one’s taking longer to play out than I’d projected…

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  Stocktwits Earnings@StocktwitsEarningsAug 6

  $MBI Q2 '26 Earnings Results & Recap • Reported GAAP EPS of -$0.91 up 18.75% YoY • Reported revenue of $27M up 17.39% YoY

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  Mike McDermott@MikeyMcDermottAug 4

  $AGO forget to put out its updated KBRA rating from yesterday? cc $MBI

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  Mike McDermott@MikeyMcDermottAug 1

  @Rseancronin could be. I personally think $AGO will acquire $MBI . I know price action doesn't look like it, but I can't square Dom comments about holding back dividend to invest in growth and Fallon going completely laconic answering the question about strat alts. Personally think it makes sense at 600 million, 300 million cash dividend to MBI shareholders from HoldCo at closing and 300 million cash from AGO to buy remainder. 11.50-12 zone. That is all Fallon et al going to get out this and they should know it by now.

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  Coffeeisforclosers@RseancroninJul 30

  $MBI make the deal or liquidate 500 mil for loyal stock holders. its time!

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  Mike McDermott@MikeyMcDermottJul 28

  $MBI @Rseancronin ok here is the math: National holds 89 million shares of MBI. Multiple that by 5.50, the market value of shares held by National is 473 million. National statutory capital is 950 million. Divide by 2 = 475 million. So National can buy shares if the equity trades for less than 5.50. If they did a $4 or $5 special dividend from HoldCo, the stub would probably trade down to $4. At that point, National could buy up to $120 million worth of MBI shares. 89 multiplied by 4 = 356 475-356 = 119 Opens up the 70 million buyback capacity. I say DO IT!! IMMEDIATELY!! Does not require OBoard, NYDFS or AGO.

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  Mike McDermott@MikeyMcDermottJul 26

  $MBI regulators gonna stiff arm this into a sale probably for an underwhelming price but good for $AGO Why would NYDFS ever agree to let more capital to come out of National while 390 million PREPA in limbo and likely will be for at least another 12 months. No special dividend. Management appears unwilling to buyback stock using the 70 million authorization and 350 million excess liquidity at holdco. I would welcome a deal at $10 -- if it included at least half in $AGO stock to participate in upside. If it was all-stock deal, all the better. 6 million ago shares is about .12 exchange ratio and I could see AGO rallying to 100 on that deal so MBI proxy would go to 12 zone. MBI will just burn $60 million costs per year to do nothing but litigate PREPA which controls their entire destiny and no end in sight and limited options to do anything about it.

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  Mike McDermott@MikeyMcDermottJul 24

  $MBI scumbags

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  Coffeeisforclosers@RseancroninJul 24

  $MBI just did deep dive into Leeam Lowin who just bought 3.3 million shares or about 6.5% of mbia. Dude is low key Legend. This very bullish for stock. He does not lose.

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  Mike McDermott@MikeyMcDermottJul 23

  This dog $MBI trades at 295 million market cap which is less than the 350 million excess liquidity they have at the HoldCo and National is the cleanest it's been since they start of Puerto Rico with 950 million stat cap and 1.4 billion claims paying resource. What a trash No $AGO acquisition incoming as they are dealing with Brightline exposure and dialing back buybacks to increase liquidity buffer.

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  Mike McDermott@MikeyMcDermottJul 22

  @Rseancronin i guess the 30 million claim transfer is just indication of business as usual at $MBI -- read --- hurry up and wait -- and the c-suite and management have summer beach plans to attend to.

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  Mike McDermott@MikeyMcDermottJul 21

  @Rseancronin any idea on pricing on the 30 million PREPA bankruptcy claims that $MBI National sold on Friday? https://document.epiq11.com/document/getdocumentbycode?docId=4593432&projectCode=PR1&source=DM

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  Mike McDermott@MikeyMcDermottJul 20

  $AGO last financial guarantee acquisitions: 2018: 13 billion reinsurance deal with Syncora (now part of golden tree) 2016: $MBI UK & CIFG 2014: Radian time to wrap this up and grab the final monoline! been 8 years since a FG acquisition -- and $AGO is talking about going back into growth mode after liquidating 81% of total shares since 2012 and M&A was always central piece of the growth plan.

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  Mike McDermott@MikeyMcDermottJul 19

  $AGO can keep Avitabile and Bergonzi on until March 1 2028 to take on the vacant Chief Credit Officer and Chief Surveillance officer roles cc $MBI

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  Mike McDermott@MikeyMcDermottJul 19

  So will we here from $AGO this week? They should at least schedule their earnings for Aug 6. Of course $MBI is tentatively scheduled to release earnings and hold conference call at the same time 🤣 With all the talk about changing composition of AGO capital structure, bringing in more soft capital vs hard equity capital .... read .... gobbledygook from Dom Frederico. Still think one way to engineer a change in capital structure is for MBIA pull 400-500 million from National and do 10/special div to shareholders and AGO assumes the rest for 200 million. Small outlay for them to take on MBIA HoldCo debt due in 2027 (90 million) and 2028 (110 million) and 400 MTNs out in 2030s. Take rest of HoldCo assets and do buybacks. Slice/dice rest of National and 1 billion claims paying resources and 20B credits and manufacture more buyback capacity and/or other growth opportunities. Dom Frederico retires as the king of the monoline after rolling up the last big one.

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