The 5 analysts that provide 10-year $MLYS revenue estimates all project MLYS to generate more product related revenues over the next 10 years than $ACLX , not 1 or 2 analysts but all 5. Of course we have no idea the gross margin profiles for either but if sales are a barometer of potential value then...
ACLX was acquired for an enterprise value of $7.3B while MLYS's market cap was $2.1B as of 6/15/26, which does not consider the $650MM MLYS had on their balance sheet at the end of Q1 26
As important, MLYS just closed a meaningful equity raise 2 weeks where accredited investors opted to invest $150MM in MLYS at $26.50. MLYS closed at just under $24.00 today.
This is not investment advice but if all 5 analysts believe MLYS' product portfolio will generate meaningfully more sales than ACLX, and ACLX's enterprise value is 4X higher then...
$XBI $IBB $NBI
$IDYA analyst consensus revenue estimates versus $NUVL & $ACLX via graph & simple 5-year revenue multiple comparison. ACLX was acquired for an EV of $7.3B & NUVB was $9.4B (rounded).
None of the 3 have a FDA approved therapy yet though obviously NUVL & ACLX had active PDUFA dates when acquired.
Our simple question...if analysts believe IDYA will meaningfully outsell ACLX and, more or less, generate revenues consistent with NUVL, does this suggest IDYA's risk v reward profile is compelling?
Are there any reasons IDYA's valuation as a multiple of analysts estimates won't match the 2 (assuming BLA's are submitted)?
This is not investment advice. $XBI $NBI
This is not investment advice. We have no idea what $RVMD might be worth in a hypothetical acquisition.
That being said, $NUVL & $ACLX were acquired for an average of 1.5X analyst 5-year FY28 - 32 revenue estimates, excluding the highest estimate for each year, as detailed on the attachment.
The 7 RVMD analysts that provide RVMD FY28 - 32 revenue estimates project RVMD to generate $28.421B in revenues over the same 5-year period. Hence if RVMD analyst estimates were credible AND if RVMD were acquired at the same average 5-year revenue multiple of 1.5X (2 ENORMOUS IFs) then RVMD would exit for $42.63B in EV (consistent with NUVL & ACLX multiples). Using RVMD's 3/31/26 cap table, this would be ~$200 per share.
We're curious if investors believe RVMD's profile would merit a peer M&A revenue multiple consistent with NUVL & ACLX? Why or why not (i.e. gross margin profile is different, royalty obligations)? We'd genuinely appreciate feedback.
This is not investment advice. $XBI $IBB
$NUVL M&A revenue multiples v. peer pre-commercial stage M&A (with active PDUFAs) plus 5 commercial-stage bios acquired very shortly post FDA approval. $ACLX is included as a peer
Using NUVL's 3/31/2026 Cap Table, we get a fully diluted enterprise value of $9.383B or call it $9.4B (calculation attached that reconciles to the $10.6B market cap per NUVL press release).
NUVL Year 1 - 10 = FY2027 - FY2036 analyst consensus per Seeking Alpha. The peer transactions take year 1 - 10 per the acquiree management. We will update this analysis when NUVL files their 14D9 with the SEC in about 4 weeks
The attached analysis (that has not been verified) suggests NUVL is being acquired at one of the highest revenue multiples in this peer group (assuming analyst consensus is more or less accurate.
Investors in $RVMD & $CELC may want to review. This is not investment advice
$CLDX
$ACLX Galectin Therapeutics (NASDAQ: GALT) is presenting new clinical analyses of its Phase 2b NAVIGATE trial for its lead drug, belapectin, at the EASL Congress. The presentations at the European Association for the Study of the Liver focus on preventing esophageal varices and improving liver biomarkers in patients with MASH cirrhosis.
$ACLX Equity Corporate Actions Alert #2026 - 272
Information Regarding the Merger of Arcellx, Inc. (ACLX)
https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/TraderNews.aspx?id=eca2026-272
The tender offer by Gilead Sciences, Inc. $GILD to acquire all of the outstanding common stock of Arcellx, Inc. $ACLX is scheduled to expire at 5:00 p.m. ET, on April 27, 2026, unless extended or terminated. The subsequent merger is tentatively scheduled to close prior to the market open on April 28, 2026. In anticipation of the closing, the stock will be halted immediately following the after-hours session at or around 7:50 p.m. on April 27, 2026. If the merger closes as anticipated, the stock will remain halted on the day of closing (April 28th) and will be suspended effective April 29, 2026. The details are as follows:
$GILD Gilead Receives All Required Regulatory Approvals for the Acquisition of $ACLX Arcellx and Extends Tender Offer
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260417916113/en/Gilead-Receives-All-Required-Regulatory-Approvals-for-the-Acquisition-of-Arcellx-and-Extends-Tender-Offer
"The tender offer, which was previously scheduled to expire at 5:00 p.m., Eastern Time, on April 24, 2026, has been extended to expire at 5:00 p.m., Eastern Time, on April 27, 2026, and remains subject to the satisfaction or waiver of customary closing conditions, including the tender of a number of shares of Arcellx common stock that, together with shares already owned by Gilead, equals at least a majority of the then-outstanding Arcellx shares and other customary offer conditions. "
$ACLX $GILD
Gilead extends tender offer to acquire Arcellx
Gilead Sciences (GILD) extended the expiration of the tender offer to purchase all outstanding shares of common stock of Arcellx (ACLX). The offer remains at a purchase price of (1) $115.00 per share, net to the seller in cash, without interest, subject to any withholding tax, plus (2) one contractual contingent value right , which represents the right to receive one contingent payment of $5.00 per CVR in cash, without interest, and subject to any withholding tax, payable on March 31, 2030, subject to cumulative worldwide sales of Arcellx's anitocabtagene autoleucel (anito-cel) product exceeding $6.0 billion on or prior to December 31, 2029.
